К основному контенту

Overcoming the Consequences of Russian Aggression in Donbas

Presentation of "Kalmius Group" materials on the topic “Overcoming the Consequences of Russian Aggression in Donbas” took place in Kyiv on August 28.

Public opinion on amnesty for combatants (the first round of survey data)

Partial amnesty for combatants. The overwhelming majority of respondents do not support the idea of a full amnesty for all aggrieved parties - that is, a position where everyone is forgiven.

Just 11.8% of respondents are strongly agree with the position of full amnesty, 16.2% somewhat agree, 30.8% somewhat disagree, 36.1% strongly disagree, 5.2% of respondents are undecided.

The option of the amnesty only for those who participated in illegal military formations in uncontrolled territories and did not commit serious crimes, for example, the killing of civilians, kidnapping, rape, enjoys more support.

25.8% of the respondents strongly agree, 33.4% somewhat agree, 14.2% somewhat disagree, and 23.1% strongly disagree with this option, 3,5% of respondents are undecided.   

The position not to grant an amnesty is also popular. In response to the position “No amnesty - everyone should be held accountable in accordance with the law”, the following results were obtained: 35.7% agree with this option, 23.8% somewhat agree, 20.7% somewhat disagree, 15.8% strongly disagree with it, 4% of respondents are undecided.

The question of who should decide on granting or refusing an amnesty to a certain person revealed a somewhat low level of confidence in Ukrainian judges. Only 11.3% believe that the decisions on amnesty should be taken by the Ukrainian judges. 28.1% believe that it should be decided by the representatives of international organizations or judges from abroad with a good reputation, 28.7% are for the groups that include both Ukrainian and foreign judges, 27.5% opt the groups of local residents who are aware of the situation during the conflict.

Only 5.5% of the respondents are strongly sure that the amnesty can be granted honestly and without abuse, 18.8% are strongly sure that the amnesty can not be granted honestly and without abuse. Most of the respondents were divided between these polar estimates with varying degrees of confidence as to the possibility of honest amnesty.

Public opinion on the possible lustration of civilian officials (the second round of survey data)

Loyalty to doctors, educators and utility providers. The vast majority of Ukrainians (from 75.5% to 92.7%) and Donbas residents (from 79.5% to 92.4%) somewhat or strongly agree that both mid-level and lower-level professionals in the temporarily occupied territories of Donbas, working in the fields of health care, utilities, education and social care, should be allowed to keep their jobs in case of Ukraine's restoring control over these territories.

Three out of four Ukrainians (73.5%) and a similar share among the Donbas residents (75.0%) agree that the doctors and health care professionals should keep their jobs.

More than half of the population of Ukraine (from 57.6% to 60.5%) and two out of three Donbas residents (64.8% -66.2%) do not object to the fact that the senior management in the field of utilities, education and social care should keep their jobs.

68.6% of those polled strongly agree, 24.0% somewhat agree, 3.4% somewhat disagree, 2.4% strongly disagree and 1.6% are undecided with the idea that doctors, middle and lower ranking health care specialists should be allowed to keep their jobs in case of Ukraine's restoring control over these territories.

The attitude to doctors and the senior management of health care is also quite loyal. 45.6% strongly agree, 28.0% somewhat agree, 12.4% somewhat disagree, 9.6% strongly disagree, another 4.5% are undecided with the idea that they should be allowed to keep their jobs in case of Ukraine's restoring control over these territories.

The idea of keeping jobs by the teachers, the middle and lower ranking specialists in education has also a significant support of Ukrainians.

52.0% strongly agree with it, 26.1% somewhat agree, 9.7% somewhat disagree, 9.1% strongly disagree, 3.2% are undecided.

The attitudes towards teachers and the senior management of education are less loyal, but most respondents still support the idea of keeping their jobs.

34.0% of those polled strongly agree with the idea, 24.7 % somewhat agree, 18.4 % somewhat disagree, 18.1% strongly disagree, 4.9% are undecided.

While running the focus groups before sociological survey, the respondents also supported the idea of keeping their workplaces by educators, but there were warnings as to the people who could be involved in the ideological education of the pupils and students.

The middle and lower ranking specialists in the social care field are also “allowed” to keep their workplaces by the respondents.  43.4% strongly agree, 32.1% somewhat agree, 11.8% somewhat disagree, 7.4% strongly disagree and 5.4% are undecided.

The idea of keeping their workplaces by the senior management of social care in case of Ukraine's restoring control over these territories, has the following support: 29.1% of those polled strongly agree, 28.5% somewhat agree, 18.1% somewhat disagree, 18.1% strongly disagree, 5.4 % are undecided.

45.6% of those polled strongly agree, 32.8% somewhat agree, 10.7% somewhat disagree, 7.6% strongly disagree, another 3.3% are undecided with the answer to the similar idea as to the middle and lower ranking specialists in utilities.

The idea of keeping their workplaces by the senior management of the utilities field in case of Ukraine's restoring control over these territories, is strongly agreed by 30.0%, 30.4% somewhat agree with it, 18.6% somewhat disagree, 17.6% strongly disagree, 3.4% are undecided.

Public opinion on the possible lustration of the occupation administration representatives (the second round of survey data)

Disloyalty to the self-proclaimed authorities representatives. With a completely loyal attitude to health care, utilities and humanitarian fields, the attitude of Ukrainians towards de facto authorities representatives in temporarily occupied territories is diametrically opposed. Most respondents disagree with the thesis that they should be allowed to keep their jobs in case of Ukraine's restoring of control over the occupied territories. This applies to those who work in both the senior and the middle/lower ranking of de facto authorities. The majority of Ukrainians (77.4% and 73.3%), as well as two thirds of the Donbas residents (65.2% and 59.6%) do not agree that representatives of the de facto occupation authorities, both the senior and the middle/lower ranking respectively, could be allowed to keep their jobs in case of Ukraine's restoring of control over these territories.

The idea that the middle and lower ranking specialists of de facto authorities should be allowed to keep their jobs in case of Ukraine's restoring of control over these territories is strongly agreed by 11.2% of those polled, 9.8% somewhat agree, 17.5% somewhat disagree, 55.8% strongly disagree, 5.8% are undecided.

The similar idea as to the senior specialists of de facto authorities is strongly agreed by 9.1% of those polled, 8.1% somewhat agree, 15.6% somewhat disagree, 61.8% strongly disagree, 5.5% are undecided.

“Kalmius Group” is an informal association of Ukrainian analysts whose goal is to promote the restoration of the country’s sovereignty in the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Download  PDF on Google Drive 
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“Kalmius Group” is an informal association of Ukrainian analysts whose goal is to promote the restoration of the country’s sovereignty in the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. 

The “Kalmius Group” was established by Oleksandr Kluzhev, Mariia Zolkina, Oleksii Matsuka, Vitalii Syzov, Oleksandr Dmitriiev.
Motivation of our Group's activities is clear and transparent – to contribute effectively and professionally to the restoration of the territorial integrity of the country. The name of the coalition comes from the Kalmius River, which unites the free and temporarily occupied districts of the region and symbolizes the hope of citizens on both sides of the demarcation line to peace-making by stopping the interstate conflict and restoring the unity of Ukraine, the rule of law and order in the territories affected by the armed confrontation. This study was presented by the “Kalmius Group” initiative under “Ukraine Confidence Building Initiative” (UCBI ІІ) project, funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). 

The study was made possible thanks to the generous support of the American people through USAID. The product content is the sole responsibility of the “Kalmius Group” and does not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the US Government.
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The first round of the survey was conducted by GfK Ukraine on behalf of the Kalmius Group, a survey method - telephone interviews with mobile phone calls and random phone number generation, the survey period - from April 14 to May 2, 2018. The sample comprised 1975 respondents, 536 of them are from Donetsk and Luhansk regions (the territories, controlled by the Ukrainian government).

The second round of the survey was conducted by GfK Ukraine, with the use of the same survey method,  from May 3 to May 19 , 2018. The sample comprised 1980 respondents, 528 of them are from Donetsk and Luhansk regions (the territories, controlled by the Ukrainian government).

The weighted data for the population of Ukraine (1980 respondents) correspond to the population distribution by age/sex/type of a settlement and macroregion according to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine as of January 1, 2017; when weighing, the distribution of Donetsk and Luhansk regions population by age/sex/type of a settlement is additionally taken into account.

The maximum error is: for Ukraine - no more than 2.5%, for Donetsk and Luhansk regions - no more than 4.9%. The survey was conducted in all regions of Ukraine with the exception of the uncontrolled part of Donetsk and Luhansk regions and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea.

The materials present the weighted data and the total volume of the weighted sample as 1500 respondents.


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